ν¬μ€νΈν¬μκ΄λ¦¬ μμ₯, λμ§νΈ μ ν κ°μν μ 9%λ κ³ μ±μ₯ μκ³ π
μ΅κ·Ό λ°νλ μμ₯ λΆμ λ³΄κ³ μμ λ°λ₯΄λ©΄, ν¬μ ν μμ°μ μ±κ³Όλ₯Ό κ΄λ¦¬νκ³ κ°μΉλ₯Ό κ·Ήλννλ 'ν¬μ€νΈν¬μκ΄λ¦¬(Post Investment Management)' μμ₯μ΄ λ³Έκ²©μ μΈ μ±μ₯ κΆ€λμ μ¬λμ΅λλ€. 2025λ 111.7μ΅ λ¬λ¬ κ·λͺ¨μμ 2026λ 122μ΅ λ¬λ¬λ‘ μ±μ₯ν λ° μ΄μ΄, μ°νκ· 9%λμ μ±μ₯λ₯ μ μ μ§νλ©° 2030λ μλ μ½ 171.9μ΅ λ¬λ¬ κ·λͺ¨μ λ¬ν κ²μΌλ‘ μ λ§λ©λλ€.
μ΄ κ°μ μ±μ₯μ μ¬λͺ¨νλ λ° λ체ν¬μ νλ, ν¬μ ν¬νΈν΄λ¦¬μ€ 볡μ‘μ± μ¦κ°, κ°νλλ κ·μ μꡬμ¬ν λ±μ΄ 볡ν©μ μΌλ‘ μμ©ν κ²°κ³Όμ λλ€. νΉν AI κΈ°λ° ν¬μ μΈμ¬μ΄νΈ, ν΅ν© 리μ€ν¬ κ΄λ¦¬ νλ«νΌ, ESG(νκ²½Β·μ¬νΒ·μ§λ°°κ΅¬μ‘°) μ€μ¬μ κ°μΉ μ°½μΆμ΄ μμ₯μ μ΄λμ΄κ° 3λ λ©κ°νΈλ λλ‘ λΆμνμ΅λλ€.
μμ₯μ μμ§μ΄λ ν΅μ¬ νΈλ λμ μ£Όμ νλ μ΄μ΄ λΆμ βοΈ
1. κΈ°μ νμ μ΄ μ£Όλνλ μμ₯ μ¬νΈ
μμ₯μ κ°μ₯ ν° λ³νλ μ€μκ° ν¬νΈν΄λ¦¬μ€ λͺ¨λν°λ§κ³Ό λ°μ΄ν° κΈ°λ° μ±κ³Ό λΆμμ 보νΈνμ λλ€. λΈλλ‘ μμ°μ΄μ©μ΄ μ λ³΄μΈ AI νλ«νΌ 'μλΌλ(Aladdin)'μ μ€μκ° λ¦¬μ€ν¬ λΆμκ³Ό ν¬κ΄μ μΈ ν¬νΈν΄λ¦¬μ€ κ΄λ¦¬λ₯Ό μ 곡νλ©°, νλ 맀λμ λ€μ λ°μ΄ν° κΈ°λ° μμ¬κ²°μ μ μ§μνλ λνμ μΈ μ¬λ‘μ λλ€.
2. ESG, μ΄μ λ μ νμ΄ μλ νμ
ν¬μμμ κ·μ κΈ°κ΄μ μλ ₯μΌλ‘ ESG μμλ₯Ό ν΅ν©ν κ°μΉ μ°½μΆ μ λ΅μ λͺ¨λ μμ°μ΄μ©μ¬μ ν΅μ¬ μμ κ° λμμ΅λλ€. λ¨μν '체ν¬λ¦¬μ€νΈ'λ₯Ό λμ΄, ESG μ±κ³Όκ° μ₯κΈ°μ μΈ μμ΅λ₯ κ³Ό μ§μ μ μΌλ‘ μ°κ²°λλ€λ μΈμμ΄ νμ°λκ³ μμ΅λλ€.
3. κΈλ‘λ² κΈμ΅μ¬μ M&Aλ₯Ό ν΅ν μλ κ°ν
μμ₯ μ μ μ μν κ²½μλ μΉμ΄ν©λλ€. λΈλλ‘μ ElmTree Funds LLC μΈμμ κ°μ μ¬λ‘λ μΈνλΌ ν¬μ μλμ κ°ννκ³ νλ«νΌμ νμ₯νκΈ° μν μ λ΅μ μμ§μμΌλ‘ ν΄μλ©λλ€. JPλͺ¨κ±΄, λ± ν¬μ€λΈμλ©λ¦¬μΉ΄, 골λλ§μμ€ λ± μ ν΅μ μΈ κ°μλ€κ³Ό ν¨κ» λ€μν νν ν¬ κΈ°μ λ€μ΄ κ²½μ ꡬλλ₯Ό νμ±νκ³ μμ΅λλ€.
μ΄ μμ₯μ κΈμ±μ₯ κ°λ₯μ±μ λν΄ μμ₯ μ λ¬Έκ°λ€μ μ견μ μκ°λ¦¬κ³ μμ΅λλ€. μ£Όμ λ Όμ μ μ λ¦¬ν΄ λ΄€μ΅λλ€.
Best & Worst Case μλ리μ€: λ―Έλ μμ₯μ κ°λ₯΄λ κ°λ¦ΌκΈΈ π
μ΄ μμ₯μ λ―Έλλ κΈ°μ λμ μλμ κΈλ‘λ² κ·μ νκ²½μ ν¬κ² μ’μ°λ κ²μ λλ€.
| μλλ¦¬μ€ μ ν | λ°μ 쑰건 | μμ₯ μ λ§ (2030λ ) | μ£Όμ μν₯ μμΈ |
|---|---|---|---|
| π₯ Best Case (μ΄κ³ μ μ±μ₯) | β’ AI/λΉ
λ°μ΄ν° κΈ°μ λμ
κ°μν β’ κΈλ‘λ² ESG κ·μ νμ€ν μ‘°κΈ° μμ± β’ ν΄λΌμ°λ 보μ κΈ°μ λΉμ½μ λ°μ | ~200μ΅ λ¬λ¬ λν (CAGR ~11%) | β’ λ°μ΄ν° λΆμ ν¨μ¨μ± κ·Ήλν β’ μ κ· μμ₯(μ€μν κΈ°κ΄, κ°μΈ) λΉ λ₯Έ ν¬μ°© β’ νλ«νΌ ν΅ν© λΉμ© κ°μ |
| βοΈ Base Case (νν μ μ§) | β’ νμ¬ νΈλ λμ μ νμ νμ₯ β’ μ§μλ³ κ·μ μ°¨μ΄ μ§μ β’ κΈ°μ λμ μ 보μμ μ κ·Ό | ~172μ΅ λ¬λ¬ (CAGR ~9%) | β’ λ³΄κ³ μ μ λ§κ³Ό μ μ¬ν μ±μ₯ κΆ€μ β’ λΆλ―Έ μ£Όλ, μμμννμ μ§μ μ±μ₯μΈ λλ · |
| β οΈ Worst Case (μ±μ₯ μ 체) | β’ κΈλ‘λ² κ²½κΈ° 침체 μ₯κΈ°ν β’ λ°μ΄ν° νλΌμ΄λ²μ κ·μ κ°νλ‘ κΈ°μ νμ μ ν΄ β’ ESG νΌν (greenwashing) λ Όλ νλ | ~150μ΅ λ¬λ¬ λ―Έλ§ (CAGR ~6%) | β’ IT μμ° κ°μλ‘ λμ§νΈ μ ν μ§μ° β’ μ κ· ν¬μ μμΆμΌλ‘ μμ₯ μμ κ°μ β’ κ·μ λΆνμ€μ± μ¦κ° |
π κΈ°μ νλλ©νΈ μ¬μΈ΅ λΆμ
| κΈ°μ λͺ | μ£Όκ° (Price) | PER (μ£Όκ°μμ΅λΉμ¨) | PBR (μ£Όκ°μμμ°λΉμ¨) | ROE (μκΈ°μλ³Έμ΄μ΅λ₯ ) | μμ μ΄μ΅λ₯ (OPM) | 맀μΆμ±μ₯λ₯ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMJB (Alerian) | $0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| BAC (Bank) | $52 | 13.78 | 1.37 | 10.19% | 35.56% | 13.20% |
| BKLN (Invesco) | $0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| BLK (BlackRock,) | $1,083 | 30.63 | 3.03 | 10.69% | 35.10% | 23.40% |
| BLKC (Invesco) | $0 | 10.62 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| C (Citigroup,) | $114 | 16.34 | 1.04 | 6.83% | 21.56% | 3.70% |
| CGW (Invesco) | $0 | 23.20 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| CQQQ (Invesco) | $0 | 21.94 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| CUT (Invesco) | $0 | 19.79 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| CpN (13310434) | $0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| DIVB (iShares) | $0 | 19.49 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| DIVG (Invesco) | $0 | 17.32 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| DWAS (Invesco) | $0 | 19.42 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| EELV (Invesco) | $0 | 13.35 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| EEMO (Invesco) | $0 | 12.06 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| GBLD (Invesco) | $0 | 13.49 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| GRPZ (Invesco) | $0 | 13.01 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| GS (Goldman) | $913 | 17.79 | 2.55 | 13.88% | 37.59% | 15.20% |
| HSBC (HSBC) | $87 | 18.30 | 8.75 | 9.29% | 39.95% | 4.80% |
| IBBQ (Invesco) | $0 | 22.55 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| IDHQ (Invesco) | $0 | 21.39 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| IDMO (Invesco) | $0 | 17.68 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| IPKW (Invesco) | $0 | 13.64 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| IVZ (Invesco) | $26 | 0.00 | 0.95 | -1.22% | -86.18% | 6.20% |
| JPM (JP) | $308 | 15.37 | 2.42 | 16.13% | 41.06% | 2.50% |
| KBWB (Invesco) | $0 | 14.94 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| KBWD (Invesco) | $0 | 9.62 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| KBWP (Invesco) | $0 | 13.29 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| KLMT (Invesco) | $0 | 23.33 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| MS (Morgan) | $173 | 16.96 | 2.75 | 15.73% | 39.43% | 11.00% |
| PBD (Invesco) | $0 | 21.73 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PBTP (Invesco) | $0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PBUS (Invesco) | $0 | 27.21 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PCEF (Invesco) | $0 | 26.39 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PCY (Invesco) | $0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PGX (Invesco) | $0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PIE (Invesco) | $0 | 15.23 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PIO (Invesco) | $0 | 23.65 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PIZ (Invesco) | $0 | 17.48 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PSCC (Invesco) | $0 | 12.53 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PSCD (Invesco) | $0 | 16.97 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PSCE (Invesco) | $0 | 14.28 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PSCF (Invesco) | $0 | 14.86 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PSCH (Invesco) | $0 | 21.69 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PSCI (Invesco) | $0 | 24.92 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PSCM (Invesco) | $0 | 24.86 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PSCT (Invesco) | $0 | 25.37 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PSCU (Invesco) | $0 | 10.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PVI (Invesco) | $0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PWZ (Invesco) | $0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PZT (Invesco) | $0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| QOWZ (Invesco) | $0 | 33.18 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| QQJG (Invesco) | $0 | 23.97 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| QQMG (Invesco) | $0 | 33.09 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| QQQJ (Invesco) | $0 | 24.62 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| QQQM (Invesco) | $0 | 32.17 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| QQQS (Invesco) | $0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| QVML (Invesco) | $0 | 26.84 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| QVMM (Invesco) | $0 | 21.47 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| QVMS (Invesco) | $0 | 17.41 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| RDIV (Invesco) | $0 | 14.59 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| RWJ (Invesco) | $0 | 14.31 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| RWK (Invesco) | $0 | 17.53 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| RWL (Invesco) | $0 | 21.80 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| SATO (Invesco) | $0 | 6.91 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| SOXQ (Invesco) | $0 | 40.38 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| SPHB (Invesco) | $0 | 26.70 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| SPHD (Invesco) | $0 | 17.11 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| SPMO (Invesco) | $0 | 29.36 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| SPMV (Invesco) | $0 | 23.59 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| SPVU (Invesco) | $0 | 13.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| TAN (Invesco) | $0 | 22.54 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| UBS (UBS) | $42 | 17.90 | 1.45 | 8.86% | 23.26% | 5.50% |
| VRP (Invesco) | $0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| VYLD (Inverse) | $0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| WFC (Wells) | $88 | 13.98 | 1.64 | 11.73% | 32.22% | 5.00% |
| XMLV (Invesco) | $0 | 19.15 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| XRLV (Invesco) | $0 | 22.56 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| XSHD (Invesco) | $0 | 14.51 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
κ²°λ‘ : λμ§νΈΒ·ESG μλμ΄ μμ₯ μμ‘΄μ ν€μλ
ν¬μ€νΈν¬μκ΄λ¦¬ μμ₯μ λ μ΄μ 'λ°±μ€νΌμ€' κΈ°λ₯μ΄ μλ, ν¬μ μ±κ³Όλ₯Ό κ²°μ νλ ν΅μ¬ μ λ΅ λΆμΌλ‘ μ§ννμ΅λλ€. ν₯ν μΉμλ AIμ ν΄λΌμ°λλ₯Ό νμ©ν μ΄μ ν¨μ¨μ±κ³Ό, μ§μ μ± μλ ESG ν΅ν©μ ν΅ν΄ μ₯κΈ° κ°μΉλ₯Ό μ¦λͺ ν μ μλ νλ μ΄μ΄κ° λ κ²μ λλ€.
ν¬μμ μ μ₯μμλ μ΄ μμ₯μ μ±μ₯μ κ°μ μ μΌλ‘ μ°Έμ¬ν μ μλ κΈ°νλ‘ λ³Ό μ μμ΅λλ€. κ΄λ ¨ κΈ°μ μ μ 곡νλ νν ν¬ κΈ°μ , λλ λμ§νΈ μ νμ μ±κ³΅ν λν μμ°μ΄μ©μ¬μ μ£Όμμ μ₯κΈ° μ±μ₯ ν λ§μ μΌνμΌλ‘ κ΄μ¬μ κ°μ§ λ§ν©λλ€. λ¨, μμ₯μ΄ μμλ³΄λ€ λΉ λ₯΄κ² ν¬ν μνμ λλ¬νκ±°λ, κΈ°μ λ³νμ λ°λ₯Έ νκ΄΄μ νμ μ΄ λ°μν 리μ€ν¬λ μΌλμ λμ΄μΌ ν©λλ€.
ν¨κ» 보면 μ’μ κΈ
- μ£Όμ μμ₯ μ€λ: κΈλ‘λ² κ΄μΈ μ μ± λ³λμ λ°λ₯Έ μμ₯ λ°μ λΆμ
- λνμ£Ό λ³λμ± λΆμ: μμ₯ μ‘°μ κΈ° ν¬μ ν¬νΈν΄λ¦¬μ€ μ κ²λ²
λ³Έ μ½ν μΈ λ μμ₯ λ³΄κ³ μ λ° κ³΅κ° μ 보λ₯Ό λ°νμΌλ‘ ν λΆμμΌλ‘, ν¬μ κΆμ λ κΈμ΅ μ‘°μΈμ λͺ©μ μΌλ‘ νμ§ μμ΅λλ€. λͺ¨λ ν¬μ κ²°μ μ λ μ λ³ΈμΈμ μ± μ νμ μ μ€ν νλ¨μ κ±°μ³ μ΄λ£¨μ΄μ ΈμΌ ν©λλ€.
